Some working papers
Recessions, Recoveries, and Leverage, (with Yu-Fan Huang and Sui Luo).
How Much Do Early Teachers Matter? (with Dan Goldhaber and Zeyu Jin.)
The Variance of Regression Coefficients When the Population Is Finite (with Doug Steigerwald).
Improved Estimation of Peer Effects Using Network Data (with Alex Wood-Doughty).
On the Present Value Model in a Cross Section of Stocks (with Kwok Ping Tsang).
Bayesian Heteroskedasticity Robust Regression.
Bayesian IV: The normal case with multiple endogenous variables, (with Tim Cogley).
Litigant Resources and the Evolution of Legal Precedent, (with Albert Yoon).
Some recent published work
Inference and Extrapolation in Finite Populations with Special Attention to Clustering (with Doug Steigerwald), Econometric Reviews, forthcoming.
Covid, Colleges, and Classes (with Danny Klinenberg), Applied Economics, Vol. 55, Number 5.
.Monetary Shock Measurement and Stock Markets, (with Arabinda Basistha), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Volume 54, Issue 2-3, March-April 2022.
Are Recoveries All the Same: GDP and TFP? (with Yu-Fan Huang and Sui Luo), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 83, Issue 5, October 2021.
How Research Goes Astray: Paths and Equilibria, Economic Inquiry, Volume 58, Issue 4, October 2020.
Improved Recession Dating Using Stock Market Volatility, (with Yu-Fan Huang), International Journal of Forecasting, 36 : 507-514, 2020.
The Next Hundred Years of Growth and Convergence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Volume.35, February 2020.
Not p-Values, Said a Little Bit Differently, Econometrics, 7(1), 11, 2019.
Feasible Generalized Least Squares Using Machine Learning (with Steve Miller), Economics Letters, Volume 175, February 2019.
Robust Estimation of ARMA Models with Near Root Cancellation, (with Tim Cogley), Advances in Econometrics, vol. 40, forthcoming.
“Causal Inference for Quantifying Displaced Primary Production from Recycling,” (with Joe Palazzo, Roland Geyer, and Doug Steigerwald), Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 210, 10 February 2019.
The Path to an Economics PhD (with Garrison Schlauch), Economics Bulletin, Vol. 38, Issue 4, October 2018.
Toward Estimating Displaced Primary Production from Recycling: A Case Study of U.S. Aluminum, (with Trevor Zink and Roland Geyer), Journal of Industrial Ecology, vol. 22, Issue 2, April 2018.
Less than 2°C warming by 2100 unlikely (with Adrian E. Raftery, Alec Zimmer, Dargan M.W. Frierson, and Peiran Liu), Nature: Climate Change, July 31, 2017.
On the Distribution of Worker Productivity: The Case of Teacher Effectiveness and Student Achievement (with Dan Goldhaber), Statistics and Public Policy, Vol. 4 , Issue 1, 2017.
Functional diversity of catch mitigates negative effects of temperature variability on fisheries yields, (with Laura Dee, Steve Miller, Lindsey Peavey, Darcy Bradley, Rebecca Gentry, Steven Gaines, and Sarah Lester) Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B, Volume 283, issue 1836, August 2016.
A Market-Based Framework for Quantifying Displaced Production from Recycling or Reuse, (with Trevor Zink and Roland Geyer), Journal of Industrial Ecology, Volume 20, Issue 4, August 2016.
Choosing the More Likely Hypothesis," Foundations and Trends® in Econometrics: Vol. 7: No. 2, 2014.
Is it One Break or Ongoing Permanent Shocks That Explains U.S. Real GDP? (with Sui Luo), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 66, September 2014.
On the Implicit Uniform BIC Prior,
Economics Bulletin, Vol. 34 No. 2, April 2014.
Nonexponential Discounting: A Direct
Test and Perhaps a New Puzzle, (with Kwok Ping Tsang), B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 12, Issue 1, November 2012.
Policy Evaluation vs Explanation of Outcomes in Education, Education Finance and Policy, Summer 2012.
How Much Do Early Teachers Matter? (with Dan Goldhaber and Zeyu Jin.)
The Variance of Regression Coefficients When the Population Is Finite (with Doug Steigerwald).
Improved Estimation of Peer Effects Using Network Data (with Alex Wood-Doughty).
On the Present Value Model in a Cross Section of Stocks (with Kwok Ping Tsang).
Bayesian Heteroskedasticity Robust Regression.
Bayesian IV: The normal case with multiple endogenous variables, (with Tim Cogley).
Litigant Resources and the Evolution of Legal Precedent, (with Albert Yoon).
Some recent published work
Inference and Extrapolation in Finite Populations with Special Attention to Clustering (with Doug Steigerwald), Econometric Reviews, forthcoming.
Covid, Colleges, and Classes (with Danny Klinenberg), Applied Economics, Vol. 55, Number 5.
.Monetary Shock Measurement and Stock Markets, (with Arabinda Basistha), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Volume 54, Issue 2-3, March-April 2022.
Are Recoveries All the Same: GDP and TFP? (with Yu-Fan Huang and Sui Luo), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 83, Issue 5, October 2021.
How Research Goes Astray: Paths and Equilibria, Economic Inquiry, Volume 58, Issue 4, October 2020.
Improved Recession Dating Using Stock Market Volatility, (with Yu-Fan Huang), International Journal of Forecasting, 36 : 507-514, 2020.
The Next Hundred Years of Growth and Convergence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Volume.35, February 2020.
Not p-Values, Said a Little Bit Differently, Econometrics, 7(1), 11, 2019.
Feasible Generalized Least Squares Using Machine Learning (with Steve Miller), Economics Letters, Volume 175, February 2019.
Robust Estimation of ARMA Models with Near Root Cancellation, (with Tim Cogley), Advances in Econometrics, vol. 40, forthcoming.
“Causal Inference for Quantifying Displaced Primary Production from Recycling,” (with Joe Palazzo, Roland Geyer, and Doug Steigerwald), Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 210, 10 February 2019.
The Path to an Economics PhD (with Garrison Schlauch), Economics Bulletin, Vol. 38, Issue 4, October 2018.
Toward Estimating Displaced Primary Production from Recycling: A Case Study of U.S. Aluminum, (with Trevor Zink and Roland Geyer), Journal of Industrial Ecology, vol. 22, Issue 2, April 2018.
Less than 2°C warming by 2100 unlikely (with Adrian E. Raftery, Alec Zimmer, Dargan M.W. Frierson, and Peiran Liu), Nature: Climate Change, July 31, 2017.
On the Distribution of Worker Productivity: The Case of Teacher Effectiveness and Student Achievement (with Dan Goldhaber), Statistics and Public Policy, Vol. 4 , Issue 1, 2017.
Functional diversity of catch mitigates negative effects of temperature variability on fisheries yields, (with Laura Dee, Steve Miller, Lindsey Peavey, Darcy Bradley, Rebecca Gentry, Steven Gaines, and Sarah Lester) Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B, Volume 283, issue 1836, August 2016.
A Market-Based Framework for Quantifying Displaced Production from Recycling or Reuse, (with Trevor Zink and Roland Geyer), Journal of Industrial Ecology, Volume 20, Issue 4, August 2016.
Choosing the More Likely Hypothesis," Foundations and Trends® in Econometrics: Vol. 7: No. 2, 2014.
Is it One Break or Ongoing Permanent Shocks That Explains U.S. Real GDP? (with Sui Luo), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 66, September 2014.
On the Implicit Uniform BIC Prior,
Economics Bulletin, Vol. 34 No. 2, April 2014.
Nonexponential Discounting: A Direct
Test and Perhaps a New Puzzle, (with Kwok Ping Tsang), B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 12, Issue 1, November 2012.
Policy Evaluation vs Explanation of Outcomes in Education, Education Finance and Policy, Summer 2012.
