Professor of Economics
California, Santa Barbara
Santa Barbara, CA 93106-9210
Office: North Hall 3038
Tel: 805 893 2895
Fax: 805 893 8830
Far and away, the easiest way to contact me is by:
Fall Office hours: Tuesday, 2:00-3:00 or by appointment.
Inference and Extrapolation in Finite Populations with Special Attention to Clustering (with Doug Steigerwald), Econometric Reviews, forthcoming.
Covid, Colleges, and Classes (with Danny Klinenberg), Applied Economics, Vol. 55, Number 5.
Monetary Shock Measurement and Stock Markets, (with Arabinda Basistha), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Volume 54, Issue 2-3, March-April 2022.
Are Recoveries All the Same: GDP and TFP?(with Yu-Fan Huang and Sui Luo), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 83, Issue 5, October 2021.
How Research Goes Astray: Paths and Equilibria, Economic Inquiry, Volume 58, Issue 4, October 2020.
Improved Recession Dating Using Stock Market Volatility, (with Yu-Fan Huang), International Journal of Forecasting, 36 : 507-514, 2020.
The Next Hundred Years of Growth and Convergence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Volume.35, February 2020.
Not p-Values, Said a Little Bit Differently, Econometrics, 7(1), 11, 2019.
Feasible Generalized Least Squares Using Machine Learning (with Steve Miller), Economics Letters, Volume 175, February 2019.
Robust Estimation of ARMA Models with Near Root Cancellation, (with Tim Cogley), Advances in Econometrics, vol. 40, Emerald Publishing Limited, August 2019.
“Causal Inference for Quantifying Displaced Primary Production from Recycling,” (with Joe Palazzo, Roland Geyer, and Doug Steigerwald), Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 210, 10 February 2019.
The Path to an Economics PhD (with Garrison Schlauch), Economics Bulletin, Vol. 38, Issue 4, October 2018.
Toward Estimating Displaced Primary Production from Recycling: A Case Study of U.S. Aluminum, (with Trevor Zink and Roland Geyer), Journal of Industrial Ecology, vol. 22, Issue 2, April 2018.
Less than 2°C warming by 2100 unlikely (with Adrian E. Raftery, Alec Zimmer, Dargan M.W. Frierson, and Peiran Liu), Nature: Climate Change, July 31, 2017.
Some working papers
Recessions, Recoveries, and Leverage, (with
Yu-Fan Huang and Sui Luo).
How Much Do Early Teachers Matter? (with Dan Goldhaber and Zeyu Jin.)
The Variance of Regression Coefficients When the Population Is Finite (with Doug Steigerwald).
Improved Estimation of Peer Effects Using Network Data (with Alex Wood-Doughty).
On the Present Value Model in a Cross Section of Stocks (with Kwok Ping Tsang).
Bayesian Heteroskedasticity Robust Regression.
Information about economics graduate school for CSU students.
Goldin & Katz advice on writing a job market paper
Matlab code for Bayesian IV by Gibbs sampling.
"Code and Data for the Social Sciences: A Practitioner’s Guide," by Matthew Gentzkow and Jesse M. Shapiro.
"Helping Faculty Help Students Get Into Ph.D. Programs in Economics," CSWEP Newsletter, III, 2022.
Movin' On Up in Economics: A webinar for CSU students interested in continuing in economics.
AEA Webinar on Helping Faculty Help Students Get Into PhD Programs in Economics (scroll down)
Free Community College – The Perfectly Middle-Class Benefit - at the Campaign for Free College Tuition
LA Times op-ed on raising teacher salaries
Washington Post on schools beating children
LA Times op-ed on smart highways
NPR on teacher salaries
LA Times op-ed on teacher salaries.