Professor of Economics
California, Santa Barbara
Santa Barbara, CA 93106-9210
Office: North Hall 3038
Tel: 805 893 2895
Fax: 805 893 8830
Far and away, the easiest way to contact me is by:
Are Recoveries All the Same: GDP and TFP?(with Yu-Fan Huang and Sui Luo), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming.
Monetary Shock Measurement and Stock Markets, (with Arabinda Basistha), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, forthcoming.
How Research Goes Astray: Paths and Equilibria, Economic Inquiry, Volume 58, Issue 4, October 2020.
Improved Recession Dating Using Stock Market Volatility, (with Yu-Fan Huang), International Journal of Forecasting, 36 : 507-514, 2020.
The Next Hundred Years of Growth and Convergence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Volume.35, February 2020.
Not p-Values, Said a Little Bit Differently, Econometrics, 7(1), 11, 2019.
Feasible Generalized Least Squares Using Machine Learning (with Steve Miller), Economics Letters, Volume 175, February 2019.
Robust Estimation of ARMA Models with Near Root Cancellation, (with Tim Cogley), Advances in Econometrics, vol. 40, Emerald Publishing Limited, August 2019.
“Causal Inference for Quantifying Displaced Primary Production from Recycling,” (with Joe Palazzo, Roland Geyer, and Doug Steigerwald), Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 210, 10 February 2019.
The Path to an Economics PhD (with Garrison Schlauch), Economics Bulletin, Vol. 38, Issue 4, October 2018.
Toward Estimating Displaced Primary Production from Recycling: A Case Study of U.S. Aluminum, (with Trevor Zink and Roland Geyer), Journal of Industrial Ecology, vol. 22, Issue 2, April 2018.
Less than 2°C warming by 2100 unlikely (with Adrian E. Raftery, Alec Zimmer, Dargan M.W. Frierson, and Peiran Liu), Nature: Climate Change, July 31, 2017.
On the Distribution of Worker Productivity: The Case of Teacher Effectiveness and Student Achievement (with Dan Goldhaber), Statistics and Public Policy, Vol. 4 , Issue 1, 2017.
Some working papers
Inference and Extrapolation in Finite Populations with Special Attention to Clustering (with Doug Steigerwald).
Covid, Colleges, and Classes (with Danny Klinenberg).
Improved Estimation of Peer Effects Using Network Data (with Alex Wood-Doughty).
On the Present Value Model in a Cross Section of Stocks (with Kwok Ping Tsang).
Bayesian Heteroskedasticity Robust Regression.